A two-stage architecture for stock price forecasting by integrating self-organizing map and support vector regression

نویسندگان

  • Sheng-Hsun Hsu
  • J. J. Po-An Hsieh
  • Ting-Chih Chih
  • Kuei-Chu Hsu
چکیده

Stock price prediction has attracted much attention from both practitioners and researchers. However, most studies in this area ignored the non-stationary nature of stock price series. That is, stock price series do not exhibit identical statistical properties at each point of time. As a result, the relationships between stock price series and their predictors are quite dynamic. It is challenging for any single artificial technique to effectively address this problematic characteristics in stock price series. One potential solution is to hybridize different artificial techniques. Towards this end, this study employs a two-stage architecture for better stock price prediction. Specifically, the self-organizing map (SOM) is first used to decompose the whole input space into regions where data points with similar statistical distributions are grouped together, so as to contain and capture the non-stationary property of financial series. After decomposing heterogeneous data points into several homogenous regions, support vector regression (SVR) is applied to forecast financial indices. The proposed technique is empirically tested using stock price series from seven major financial markets. The results show that the performance of stock price prediction can be significantly enhanced by using the two-stage architecture in comparison with a single SVR model. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A two-stage architecture for stock price forecasting by combining SOM and fuzzy-SVM

This paper proposed a model to predict the stock price based on combining Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and fuzzy – Support Vector Machines (f-SVM). Extraction of fuzzy rules from raw data based on the combining of statistical machine learning models is the base of this proposed approach. In the proposed model, SOM is used as a clustering algorithm to partition the whole input space into several di...

متن کامل

Integration of genetic fuzzy systems and artificial neural networks for stock price forecasting

Stock market prediction is regarded as a challenging task in financial time-series forecasting. The central idea to successful stock market prediction is achieving best results using minimum required input data and the least complex stock market model. To achieve these purposes this article presents an integrated approach based on genetic fuzzy systems (GFS) and artificial neural networks (ANN)...

متن کامل

A hybrid SOFM-SVR with a filter-based feature selection for stock market forecasting

Stock market price index prediction is regarded as a challenging task of the financial time series prediction process. Support vector regression (SVR) has successfully solved prediction problems in many domains, including the stock market. This paper hybridizes SVR with the self-organizing feature map (SOFM) technique and a filter-based feature selection to reduce the cost of training time and ...

متن کامل

An Enhanced Support Vector Regression Model for Weather Forecasting

An attempt is made in this paper to develop an Enhanced Support Vector Regression (ESVR ) model with more un-interpretable kernel functions in the domain of forecasting the weather conditions. Every predicate model takes input data set parameters, processing with in specified levels of classification into variable sets and countered with a variable set reduction to reach the decision of predict...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Expert Syst. Appl.

دوره 36  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2009